A political challenge for Karnataka

While much of Tamil Nadu is reverberating with celebrations by AIADMK cadres and Jayalalithaa's supporters on the Karnataka high court acquittal, the long-term political ramifications of the verdict on the state merit deeper attention. With Jayalalithaa triumphantly returning to the formal centrestage of Tamil Nadu politics and likely to take over once again as chief minister, the bargaining capacity of the state in both national and regional politics will tremendously increase.
The vindication of her stand by the high court would permit her to take on the political opposition in the state with greater vigour and fortify her position in state politics. One should not be surprised if she calls a snap poll.
It's important to also record that the BJP has, through Jayalalithaa's difficult political times, maintained the line of communication with her. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has for long had an extremely cordial relationship with the Tamil Nadu supremo.
Given the rough ride the BJP faces in the Rajya Sabha, gaining the critical support (what is often referred to as issue-based support!) of the AIADMK is vital. The election of Thambi Durai as the Lok Sabha deputy speaker soon after the constitution of the new Lok Sabha is a pointer to the BJP-AIADMK equation. Both these factors have important implications for Karnataka.
How well can a Congress government in Karnataka given its present challenges -provide a strong political response to any move of the Tamil Nadu government under Jayalalithaa, were to make, say on the Cauvery issue? It is another matter that a less-thannormal monsoon is being predicted this year.
A poor monsoon year has always caused problems on the sharing of the Cauvery waters. A triumphant Jayalalithaa returning to lead the government coupled with the need for her strategic support by the party that leads the government at the Centre, places Karnataka at a distinct disadvantage.
Karnataka elections are still three years away and the BJP may be tempted to be more focused on immediate political gains and resolving short-term challenges. The high court verdict has the potential to create serious political challenges for the state unless the political leadership was to unite across parties and respond proactively to imminent challenges.